1 supply and demand relationship
The price of aluminum will change with the change of supply and demand in the market. The balance between supply and demand will balance the price of aluminum in a very small range, and vice versa. An important indicator of the relationship between supply and demand in the market is inventory, which can be divided into report inventory and non-report inventory. Reported stock refers to the amount of stock of aluminum in its designated delivery warehouse that is regularly published by various futures exchanges. Its decline will lead to an increase in demand for aluminum, and vice versa.
2 electricity price factor
The electrolytic aluminum industry is an intensive industry that relies on electricity and has a large demand for electricity. Therefore, in the development of electrolytic aluminum industry, we must consider the influencing factors of electricity price, which affects the production of electrolytic aluminum in China, and also affects the domestic and international aluminum price trends.
3 alumina price
The cost of alumina accounts for 28%-34% of the production cost of aluminum ingots. Compared with the shortage of alumina and the large scale of electrolytic aluminum production, the fluctuation of international alumina prices will affect the production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum. For example, in 2000, the international alumina spot price dropped sharply from the highest at $450/ton at the beginning of the year to $165-175/ton at the end of the year, with an amplitude of around 70%. At the same time, international aluminum prices also fluctuated sharply, from $1,753/ton at the beginning of the year to $1,480-1,650/ton. In 2002, the average single consumption of alumina in China's aluminum smelting enterprises was 1938.27 kg / ton, and in 2003 it was 1944.88 kg / ton.
4 import and export policies and exchange rates
Due to the tight supply of domestic alumina and the fact that the demand for aluminum cannot be increased too fast due to the macroeconomic environment, this will help to promote the export of domestic aluminum ingots to a certain extent. However, domestic aluminum ingot production has high energy consumption and high cost, which restricts the development of China's aluminum ingot industry. Therefore, it still needs to import a certain amount of aluminum every year to meet domestic demand, and China's adjustment of aluminum import and export tariffs will affect Domestic aluminum prices. In addition, international aluminum trading is denominated in US dollars, and the exchange rate of the two sides of the trade will also have a certain impact on the aluminum price.
5 Fund's impact on aluminum prices
Every time the LME aluminum price fluctuates, you can see signs of activity of the international fund. For example, when LME aluminum fell from the high point of 2200 US dollars at the beginning of 1995 to the historical low level at the end of 1998, it attracted the attention of some international funds, and began to buy a lot of LME aluminum forward contracts, and gradually mastered more than half of the inventory; Years later, when the global economy began to recover, after the LME aluminum price fell below the support level of 1,200 US dollars, the fund used the market's generally pessimistic psychology and suddenly entered the market to lift the aluminum price. From March, the LME aluminum gradually increased from 1158 US dollars. , launched a five-wave rising market.
6 aluminum application trends
Changes in the amount of aluminum used in industries such as wire and cable, automobile manufacturing, and real estate, as well as industrial adjustments, will have a significant impact on aluminum production and market prices.
7 aluminum production process improvement and innovation